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Exclusive: Zhou Bo says harm done to US image may make Taiwanese reconsider their attitude towards Beijing but says he sees Trump as overall being ‘rather friendly’

The damage caused by Donald Trump to the United States’ reputation is creating opportunities for China, particularly with regards to Taiwan, according to a retired senior colonel from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Speaking to the Guardian in Beijing, Zhou Bo said that Trump was damaging the US’s reputation “more than all of his predecessors combined”.

“By the end of his second term, I believe America’s global image will simply become more tarnished, its international standing will just go down further,” Zhou said. The people of Taiwan “know that America is going down”, which “might affect their mentality” with regards to China.

In 2024, Trump said Taiwan should pay the US for help to defend itself, despite the fact that the self-governing island already spends billions of dollars on arms from the US. Taiwan is reportedly considering purchasing a further $7-10bn worth of weapons this year, as the Taiwanese government explores a range of options for currying favour with the Trump administration.

How confident would the Taiwanese be with the United States, especially with the Trump administration?” Zhou said. “Maybe the Taiwanese will one day consider, ‘Well, we cannot move away anyway. We will have to stay here. Maybe it’s not bad for us to be a member of the strongest nation on earth.”

Zhou retired as a senior colonel in 2020, having served more than 40 years in the PLA and in the ministry of defence. Now a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, he is a frequent commentator on China’s foreign affairs. “Should the World Fear China?”, published on 27 March, is a collection of Zhou’s essays written between 2013 and 2024, addressing themes such as managing US-China relations and China’s view on safeguarding its own interests.

One of the most pressing issues in the US-China relationship is the question of Taiwan. Beijing regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and has vowed to unify it with China, refusing to rule out the use of force. In 2024, Taiwan elected the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive party into power for the third consecutive term. Nearly 70% of people in Taiwan identify as being Taiwanese rather than Chinese, with the share rising to 85% among under-35s, according to Pew Research.

The US does not formally recognise Taiwan but is its largest security backer. Trump’s position on Taiwan has been unclear. Despite suggesting that the US’s support of Taiwan may have a price, he is surrounded by China hawks who are strongly opposed to China’s claims on Taiwan. Earlier this month the state department removed a line from its fact sheet on Taiwan that stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence”, a move which was condemned by Beijing.

Zhou said the fate of Taiwan was not just up to the Taiwanese people. China’s population of 1.4 billion dwarfs Taiwan’s 23 million. “We can just not only think about what the Taiwanese think about it. We have to think about what mainlanders think about it.”

‘China is definitely indispensable’
Despite tensions over Taiwan, Zhou sees Trump as overall being “rather friendly” towards China, noting that the tariffs on Chinese imports announced in Trump’s first days in office were much lower than the 60% he had threatened.

In recent weeks, Trump’s comments on China have been relatively muted, in part because the US has been preoccupied with Ukraine – an issue which exploded in spectacular fashion when Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenksyy clashed in the Oval Office on Friday. .

In the early days of the war in Ukraine, western leaders leaned on China’s president, Xi Jinping, to use his influence in Russia to help end the conflict. But China has been an economic lifeline to Russia, enabling the continuation of the war. On 24 February – the third anniversary of the Ukraine invasion – Russian president Vladimir Putin spoke on a video call with Xi. The Chinese leader described China-Russia relations as “strong” and “unique” and “not affected by any third party”, according to a Chinese readout.

The US really holds the key to resolving this issue,” Zhou said, rejecting the suggestion that China was becoming irrelevant in the peace talks. “China is definitely indispensable … China’s role will be there when it comes to the time of a ceasefire or armistice.”

Zhou said China might decide to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, along with other non-Nato European countries and countries from the global south, as peacekeepers from Nato countries would be viewed by Russia as “wolves in sheep’s clothing”. China is the second-largest contributor to the UN’s peacekeeping budget, after the US.

A widely held view in China’s academic and policy circles is that China has received too much criticism for its relationship with Russia. The two countries share a 4,200km border that was only fully agreed by both sides in 2003. Beijing is the more powerful partner in the relationship, but it has to balance Moscow’s interests too, the argument goes. The China-Russia relationship “is strong, but short of an alliance”, Zhou said. “I describe it as two lines in parallel. That means no matter how close they are, they won’t overlap.”